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Hearkening back to: https://mantei.wordpress.com/2011/02/04/election-2012-starts-now/

It concerns me that the Republican establishment wants to crown someone already – likely Romney. They are also trying to get Mitch Daniels into the race. Newt is a lost cause now, he should drop out immediately. Santorum garners respect, but he lacks the “new car smell” that we Patriots are demanding in 2012. He would also be on the defensive constantly, not a good recipe for success. Crazy Uncle Ron will continue to be himself, and Gary Johnson (a more sane libertarian) has no constituency to support him. Both should drop out, but only Johnson will. Nobody cares if Buddy Roemer or Jon Huntsman run or not. At least Barbour had the sense to pull the plug early. Pawlenty is kind of in the background, conservatives would support him, they just don’t love him. Though he and Romney have raised a LOT of money lately. I truly don’t see how Romney has credibility with primary voters on the Obamacare vs Romneycare issue. It’s just another flip flop right? I hope NOBODY is preparing to “hold their nose” at this early stage! Why is Bachmann delaying I wonder? Does she realize she and Cain will attract many of the same voters? Same for Palin, by the way. Props to Huckabee and Trump for finally teasing everyone. Now take a look at this: http://2012iowareport.com/ – post Huckabee and Trump, Herman Cain is already DOMINATING the Iowa polls. Look especially at “likely Caucus goers” where he has a nearly 22 point lead. Bachmann isn’t even a candidate yet and she is squarely in 2nd. Translation: the TEA party and social conservatives will decide Iowa, period. The question becomes, will the effect be similar in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada? I don’t see why it can’t. We must RISE and make it happen.

Assuming Palin and Daniels stay out and Bachmann jumps in, I truly think this is an unbiased handicapping of the field going forward:

Romney – lots of cash and free media coverage – FOX and Dick Morris won’t shut up about him. Will primary voters fall back once again on “paid his dues”? Fear of going with your heart and losing?

Pawlenty – as long as he doesn’t do anything dumb, will remain near the top as a low risk choice. (He and Romney would be hurt the most if Daniels gets in.)

Cain – his incredible surge will continue and eventually will be mentioned with the other two. His lack of political experience is the one and only negative about him – though not in my eyes (nor in countless thousands of others).

All 2 to 1 odds.

Bachmann – strong feelings for and against her among the electorate, looks like she is stuck in the middle. Palin would be here too. 10 to 1

Santorum – virtually no chance. 100 to 1

Paul – no chance.

Gingrich – no chance.

Johnson – no chance.

(same goes for Huntsman, Roemer, any other late comer with no name recognition)

As a Cain supporter, I feel the TEA party support would only be split by Bachmann or Palin, so I don’t want them to run. The “business experience” vote would be split only to Romney, he would be the only obstacle if the ladies are not there. Iowa is only 8 months away my friends, and the next debate is less than 4 weeks away…

PS – tune in Saturday at high noon in Atlanta for a major announcement! 🙂

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